AGGNOR / THE PROBLEM

Wildfire conditions change. Preparedness must keep pace.

Explore the evidence, changing climate, exposure and the local decisions at stake.

WHY WILDFIRE NEEDS A NEW APPROACH

Fire moves. The information
teams rely on is fragmented.

Fire services and planners must make decisions across changing weather, terrain, vegetation, communities and infrastructure. Relevant data exists, but often sits in separate systems.

A CHANGING FIRE GEOGRAPHY

Hotter, drier episodes are changing where fire preparedness matters.

Climate change can increase fire-weather extremes. European assessments project that new wildfire-prone regions may emerge in western, central and northern Europe. Norway’s 2018 drought and heat showed how quickly a severe season can strain local capacity. Risk is expanding into northern latitudes, while local fire counts remain variable.

Sources: Copernicus, European State of the Climate 2025; Rafaqat et al., Scientific Reports (2025).

9,793reported Norwegian wildfires, 2016–202316,157 hatotal burned area in the same study period

Chart from Rafaqat and colleagues showing annual wildfire counts and burned area in Norway; both peak strongly in 2018 and vary in later years — **Norway: annual fire counts and burned area.** The 2018 peak reached 2,115 fires and 4,691 ha. Burned area fell to 842 ha in 2020, then reached 2,456 ha in 2023. Figure 3 reproduced from Rafaqat et al. (2025), licensed CC BY 4.0.

2018 FIRE SEASON+95%

Increase in forest and grassland fires compared with 2017, as reported in the study.

ADDITIONAL PREPAREDNESS SPENDINGNOK 1,079.9m

Estimated additional spending associated with the 2018 increase.

ESTIMATE PER AVOIDABLE CALLNOK 1.06m

Average in the cited 2018 estimate. This is not the cost of every wildfire response.

The eight-year Norway dataset documents annual variation and an exceptional 2018 season; it is too short to establish a long-term climate trend in Norwegian fire counts by itself. Wider European projections address the changing geographic risk.

BEFORE FIRE

Where should we prepare?

Static danger indices do not show every local consequence. Municipalities and landowners need to identify priority areas, exposure and feasible preventive work.

DURING FIRE

Where might it spread?

Responders need a location-specific view of possible fire development, when assets may be affected and where resources could be positioned.

AFTER FIRE

What can we learn?

Incidents, field observations and the effect of preparedness actions need to feed back into future plans and model improvements.

The three questions we help teams exploreWhere could the fire go? · What is exposed? · What action has the greatest value?

Have a place or problem in mind?Let’s talk ↗